The severe weather threat for this evening and into the overnight hours still looks pretty low-end. However, the threat isn’t zero.
This may be an exaggerated estimate of tonight’s weather
A more data-driven look shows a much more tempered outlook….
A look at the radar estimates as we move through the overnight hours shows a few storms developing along and ahead of the cold front that will be pushing through overnight.
While storms look to develop and move across the region, the overall severe weather parameters that will be in place aren’t all screaming ‘severe weather’ so it looks lik ethings will be pretty conditional. Depending on a few things.
The forecast sounding above (also known as a Skew-T) shows four areas of interest relevant to the severe weather potential overnight.
- Not much Omega meaning low-level forcing will be on the lower end of the scale. So widespread storm coverage isn’t as likely
- The severe weather parameters all look – at face value – like a slam dunk for severe weather
- The wind shear isn’t directional shear, but rather speed shear, that should limit the potential for strong tornadoes and ‘very’ organized severe storms, most will be lopsided and perhaps over-sheared
- The 500mb temperature will be -10 Celsius, and the -10C number is one of those ‘threshold’ numbers where if it is warmer than 10C it gets harder to create severe weather and if it is cooler than -10C it gets easier to produce severe weather
So, based on all of this, I don’t think the overall forecast has changed much. We are still looking at the potential for some severe weather. But not everyone will see a severe storm. In fact, I’m thinking right now, just a handful of folks will see severe storms. And there is an even lower potential for tornadoes, which is some good news, too.
The timeline puts storms through the area between now and about 6a.
Stay weather aware tonight, but based on all of the data I’m looking at, this doesn’t look like a night where significant severe weather is likely. Some severe storms are possible. A tornado can’t be ruled out. But this isn’t looking like January of 2017, by any means.
