So, Tornado Watch is in effect for a large part of the region. The one for most of our area goes until 11pm tonight. We are juuuuust starting to see showers and storms fill in on the radar. Most everything to this point has been pretty isolated
Looking at some of the percentage from the Storm Prediction Center, they are concerned about heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up over 60mph, hail bigger than quarters and a few tornadoes.
In fact, they have a 40% chance we see at least one EF-2 or stronger tornado, 10 severe wind reports (wind greater than 60mph), and at elast one report of hail as bigger than a golf ball.
The latest model guidance is still a bit mixed about how much we actually see develop. Hi-res guidance shows things remaining isolated for another few horus and the stuff fills in once the sun goes down.
On thing to keep in mind, an old “rule of thumb” with weather down here…. Historically, the atmosphere tends to become the most conducive for tornadoes to develop within about 90 minutes of sunset. So, if the sun goes down around 730p, then the “peak time” for tornadoes tonight is going to be between 6p and 9p.
And that also happens to be when storms will be the most abundant while also still being mostly isolated. So we have a few overlapping things that would indicate that tornadoes are possible. Please keep that in mind for tonight.
A lot of times folks ask about a timeline on these things. Right now, it looks like the risk for “storms” runs from now until about 3am.
The risk for “severe storms” runs from now until about midnight.
The risk for tornadoes runs from now until 11pm.
