Howdy! It’s officially time to welcome the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Now until November 30th, the tropics will be getting more interesting. Don’t worry though, very few major storms actually develop this early into the season.
For the Atlantic, no tropical disturbance is expected to develop. The proper ingredients aren’t all there, too much wind shear, drier air, and not enough instability. Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are warm enough now, but the Atlantic Ocean is still warming up.
The Pacific Ocean is telling a different story. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts May 15, and the Central Pacific starts on June 1, both ending on November 30.
Currently, an area of low pressure is developing out in the East Pacific, producing disorganized convection. This is expected to develop into a tropical depression in the next 7 days as all the necessary factors are there. Moisture, instability, warm enough ocean temperatures, and weak wind shears. There is also a possibility of development off the coast of Mexico.
For the most part, the tropics are quiet for now! Even with a season that is expected to be below average, make sure to keep up to date with what is happening in the tropics. Just because it might be below average does not mean no high impact storms can’t occur. Be safe and stay aware!
