We have a possible disturbance over the Bay of Campeche with a 10% chance of formation over the next week. This area of low pressure is expected to move westward, moving inland over eastern Mexico late this weekend. However, the conditions are not favorable for significant development.
If we take a look at week two from the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook, tropical cyclone formation probability is greater than 20% but less than 40% off the western coast of Mexico into the Pacific Ocean.
Over the next week, the wind shear will begin to weaken. This could help the formation of the area of low pressure form.
The Gulf’s surface temperatures are also optimal for development, at around 85°F.
We are a week out from the possible development, which is only at 10% in the next 7 days.
