Subtropics Are Subtropic-ing – Week Ahead Forecast for South MS/LA/AL 6/15/26

We’re out of the drought according to the Climate Prediction Center. We got hit by a heat wave at the end of the week last week. Is there anything else that Summer 2026 can hit us with?



Today’s Setup

The rain has already moved in this morning and we’ll see it coming in all day. This system is moving in from the west and will keep moving in with varying rainfall amounts. It’s going to rain on and off, so bring your umbrella with you and keep your after-work plans indoors. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows will be in the low 70s. It’ll be a muggy night ahead and a rainy morning tomorrow.

Composite reflectivity from the HRRR model on Monday //Courtesy: Pivotal Weather


Tomorrow

The stationary front will slowly move south moving the moisture flow towards the Gulf coast. This means more rain in is coming in over the next few days. Along with the low in Mexico/Texas, this will add to the moisture flow. Overall, another rainy day is ahead on Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. We’ll have a brief break from the rain overnight, however it’ll return by Wednesday morning. The WPC has placed us under a slight risk for excessive rainfall with a moderate risk near the I-20 corridor.

Tuesday’s excessive rainfall outlook

Wednesday

AGL Reflectivity model from the HRRR showing the subtropical low’s location and feed to the Gulf coast //Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The subtropical low is hugging the Texas coastline and will slowly move towards the Deep South by Thursday. The stationary front in our neck of the woods is going to dissolve allowing the low to move in and dump a bunch of rain for the latter half of the week.

For Wednesday, we’ll have another shot for rain, but we can expect it move in from the South with a little help from the sea breeze. Scattered thunderstorms are likely throughout the day with more moving in during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s with winds out of the South.

Precipitation rate from the ECMWF model showing scattered storms moving in from the South //Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

End of the Week

Thursday’s rain and thunderstorms thanks to the incoming subtropical low //Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The subtropical low will move into east Texas/west Louisiana by Thursday increasing rain chances and output by a large margin. Most of our rain will be on Thursday into Friday. Expect rain and thunderstorms all day on Thursday and the first half of Friday (so far according to the model guidance). The temperature range won’t change much, but expect a hot day afterwards on Friday and into the weekend as we’re back to the status quo for Summer. Rainfall amounts will range between 1-4″ for us in the Pine Belt and much higher in southwestern MS/southeastern LA. I wouldn’t be surprised if the lower part of the Mississippi river rises quite a bit or even floods by next week. If you live near the river, heed any flood warnings!

Thursday’s excessive rainfall risk

Have a good week and stay dry!





Author of the article:


Noah Gower

Meteorologist residing in Hattiesburg, MS. Mississippi State University alumni with a passion for climatology, forecasting, and mapping. Loves skateboarding, bass guitar/music, and a good motorcycle ride. Currently working as an Engineering Technician.

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