Quiet. Very quiet. This is good.
As of now, there is not much going on in the tropics. This is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
First things first, the waters are warming. This is common for this time of year and shouldn’t be a cause for concern. That’s because there’s more to this story than just fuel…
Next up we have wind shear. There’s not a lot of that either. So why are we not concerned about hurricanes right now? Because there’s nothing to cause them to form.
With the orientation of the ridge right now, convection upstream of us is being strongly suppressed. Tropical systems typically don’t form right under the ridge, instead, they develop along the periphery of it. Since the ridge is right over the region where they would need to form, nothing is able to get going.
Ensembles indicate a continuation of high pressure in the gulf. This will keep tropical cyclones from forming in that area and steer any that form elsewhere, away. This pattern is known to happen during El Nino periods such as we’re in now.
Overall, a nugget of good news to start of your Fourth of July weekend.
