Howdy!
Now that Bertha is officially over, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next 7 days! Though Bertha was a more disorganized and wobbly storm, it has been very interesting to see it occur as no other tropical storm formed in the gulf moving westward in an El Nino year. So in other words, it was fairly unique in nature.
The gulf currently has high pressure over it, and there are a few tropical waves currently in the tropical Atlantic, none of which are expected to trigger the beginnings of a storm.
Some scattered to moderate convection is associated with a couple of the tropical waves, each wave moving roughly 10-15 kts moving westward. I always like looking at Infrared satellite imagery to see just how deep that convection is and to see any upper level flow/jet streams as well.
There is still a bit too much shear in the region for any meaningful storm to develop, El Nino making sure of that for now. In terms of sea surface temperatures, in the main development region they are just warm enough to support a storm, but still a bit cooler than the average.
The Pacific is very much different than the Atlantic. There is currently 2 tropical disturbances and another that is anticipated to develop within the next 2-7 days. Hurricane Fausto is currently on track to move just north of the Hawaiian islands and is expected to weaken before then. Tropical Storm Genevieve is anticipated to strengthen further into a hurricane within the next few days.
It is clear how different an El Nino year is for the Atlantic and the Pacific. The Pacific with its above-average season, and the Atlantic with its below-average. Of course, with the most recent tropical storm in the gulf, it is a reminder that now is the best time to put a plan in place just in case a storm does move to impact your area. It is good to always stay safe and be prepared!
