The rain has moved out of most of the Pine Belt this morning, and it looks like most of the rain is gone for the rest of the day! A few showers may pop up later this afternoon, but otherwise it’s looking cooler than we’ve been used to. We still have some hot days ahead of us by next week as a large high pressure sneaks in by mid-week allowing for more heat to compress on the surface.
It’s been 25 years since that tragic day in New York, Washington, D.C., and Pennsylvania. Take some time today to remember those that passed and those that gave their lives to save them and so many others in the aftermath. This is not a political post, only a memorial.
Today
Much of the rain has moved further east into Alabama and east-central Mississippi and the weak low pressure system we’ve dealt with is moving in the same direction. A few more thunderstorms are likely to develop during the afternoon, but not as potent as what we received this morning. Otherwise, we’ll see a mix of clouds and sun during the day with temperatures in the mid 80s to 90 degrees. I’d still bring a rain jacket just in case if you’re going to the game tonight, but it’s going to be warm and humid otherwise. Lows in the low to mid 70s.
Tomorrow
The morning starts off fairly sunny, but expect some low and high level clouds to move in by the afternoon. We’ll get a quick warmup and then temperatures will stagnate by the mid-afternoon. A few showers are possible mainly in southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf coast. I’m sure a few will make their way north into the Pine Belt by the mid-afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region and will fall back into the low 70s again.
Sunday, SUNDAY!
Expect some mid-level clouds for most of Sunday which will top temperatures around 90 on Sunday. Otherwise, a few coastal storms are possible with some making it to the Pine Belt. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Next Week
By next week, a broad closed ridge will build across the lower Mississippi River Valley/Southeast. This will inhibit any trough attempting to dig towards the eastern US and eject them into Canada. The ridge does look a bit short lived as the European (ECMWF) and GFS model shows a Bermuda low that may move south in the Atlantic and towards the Gulf by the weekend. Along with this, at the mid-levels a blocking begins to develop by the weekend, pushing a north plains ridge towards Canada and driving more northerly winds to the southeastern region.
This all being said, I’m not expecting a drastic change of temperature, but a slight one hopefully by the end of the week. The first half of the week will be more of the same that we’ve been used to, low to mid 90s with high humidity and a small chance of thunderstorms. As a surface high builds in the mid-Atlantic, we may see this along with a weak low undercut and split that moisture flow across the southeast. By Thursday, we might see a small dip in temperatures and humidity! It won’t last more than 2 days, but it’s hopefully a sign of things to come in the next few weeks as Fall is quickly approaching.
Extended Forecast
Looking at the Climate Prediction Center’s maps, we notice that the probability of above average temperatures is beginning to wane. That’s likely a good sign! The lower the probability, the more average temperatures are for this time of year. Considering our average for September is around 84 degrees, that means that temperatures won’t deviate too far from that. Is this a false Fall? Probably so, I don’t doubt we’ll get some hot days before we get our real fall cold front. Our average precipitation for September is typically pretty low at 1.1″, so little rain at this time of year is no surprise to us. However if that Bermuda low moves in with enough moisture flow, we could see more rain by the week after next.
