A batch of heavy rain is already affecting the Gulf Coast, where some areas have picked up a few inches of rain. A Flash Flood Warning is currently in effect for Bay St. Louis, so use caution around any flooded roads. Additional showers and storms are expected through the afternoon, and there is a marginal risk of flash flooding along the coast today.
The Setup
A weak area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast is pulling more moisture into the region today, with dew points climbing well into the 70s. A front will also settle a little closer to the area by Friday. Neither feature is all that strong, but they should be enough to bring back better chances for scattered showers and storms through the end of the week.
Today’s Forecast
Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the coast early this afternoon before additional activity develops farther inland. The HRRR shows rain reaching parts of southern and central Mississippi by around 3-4 PM, but coverage will remain scattered, and not everyone will get wet. Any storm could bring a quick downpour, especially closer to the coast where the ground is already saturated. Most of the rain should fade after sunset.
Tomorrow’s Forecast: Friday, September 11th
Friday will bring a better chance for showers and storms across the entire area. A few spotty showers may be around during the morning, but most of the activity should develop from lunchtime through the afternoon. Coverage looks more widespread than today, with pockets of heavy rain and plenty of thunder possible. Highs will generally reach the mid to upper 80s before storms fade during the evening. I’m sure most of you will welcome the rain, as we could use a good soaking!
Saturday’s Forecast: September 12th
We have better news for Saturday! While things could still change, Saturday is looking a little drier than previously expected as the weak upper-level disturbance begins to weaken and move east. A few showers or thunderstorms may still pop up during the afternoon, but coverage should be fairly limited and most places will stay dry. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low to mid-80s. Definetly a much “cooler” day!
Extended Local Outlook
High pressure will begin building back over the region Sunday into next week, leading to fewer afternoon storms and hotter temperatures. Highs should climb into the low to mid-90s by Monday and Tuesday, with a few spots possibly reaching the upper 90s. Humidity will remain high, so heat index values could once again reach dangerous levels and heat advisories may eventually be needed. A better chance for some relief may arrive toward next weekend towards the end of September!
Looking farther ahead, the CPC favors above-normal temperatures through the middle and end of next week, while rainfall chances are near normal along the Gulf Coast and slightly above normal farther north. Moderate drought remains widespread across the region, with a few pockets of severe drought, so any rain over the next few days will be welcome.
