South Mississippi Forecast: 6/11/21 – extra rain chances this weekend with eyes on the tropics

Turns out this weekend may feature a few extra chances for rain as we continue to get into “summertime” mode. Most of the rain would pass through as afternoon or early-evening pop-up storms. Nothin in the data suggests anything as robust as two nights ago – thankfully.

That said, as we get into the Northwest Flow pattern next week, clusters of storms like two night ago are going to be things we have to keep tabs on. You may recall me mentioning this the other day, but with a big ridge out west, we will have to keep tabs on Arkansas and Louisiana for little pockets of storms to march toward South Mississippi occasionally during the next seven days.

We will also have to keep tabs on the Tropics.



Tropics

For now, things are quiet, but there is still one area to watch.

00z EPS model guidance showing geneal surface pressure with the blue lines highlighting the mid-level flow // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Models are starting to get a better handle on things down there, too. For now, I tend to think that we will likely see ‘something’ toward the end of next week. How much development, where it goes, and what it does is still up in the air.

Historically, systems that (1) form in the Bay of Campeche in (2) May or June and (3) move north toward the US… tend to be one-sided rainmakers. Not



Day-by-Day Forecast

Today
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and storms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday
Hazy, hot and humid with a chance for afternoon storms. The chance for rain is around 20-percent. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values will be around 100.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with showers lingering through midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 10-percent.

Sunday
Passing clouds with a 30-percent chance for afternoon storms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Monday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and storms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and storms. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 100 to 105.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Wednesday
A few passing clouds and a 30-percent chance for showers and storms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of showers and storms. Highs in the upper 80s.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.