Great news! There is currently no signs of any tropical activity that could impact the Southeastern United States.
Now that El Nino has made it’s return, the overall atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for tropical cyclones.
For the next couple days, a large trough will eject into the Northern Plains. A ridge will park itself over us with its axis aligned north to south. This will lead to extreme heat and minimal rain chances, but no hurricanes.
Waters in the gulf have recovered and will likely only get warmer as the ridging dominates. The overall lack of development will mean that this is irrelevant unless an area does form.
Fortunately, ensemble models do not show any significant low pressure’s anywhere near the gulf. This is not super unusual (especially in an El Nino year) and hurricane season typically does not really ramp up for another month. Still though, it’s good to see a quiet pattern (even it means gross heat and humidity). We’ll keep you posted if and when the pattern does change.
