It’s like night and day. Thankfully we’re in the day.
It’s all quiet in the Atlantic basin. After the death of Bertha, it appears Mother Nature has gone back into hibernation. Out west it’s a different story.
Three areas of interest including two hurricanes. Genevieve is currently a major hurricane and is expected to continue to strengthen. Thankfully, it will stay over open waters while at that intensity.
Back to our area, it looks slow. And slow is good.
Waters have cooled down a little bit, likely due to the convective overturning from Bertha. They are still supportive of tropical activity though and will slowly warm back up.
The first half of the forecast period will see some moderate easterly shear, followed by a potentially larger trough as the ridge retrogrades west. There’s more uncertainty beyond that (which is why the ensemble above shows weaker flow).
The big story is the lack of forcing and overall subsidence. This will keep a system from being able to develop.
Indeed, the latest run of EPS shows nothing developing or impacting the Gulf coast area. This is a pretty typical El Nino pattern (quiet Atlantic and very active Pacific).
The heat may be bad but it’s better than a hurricane.
