Current Conditions
It’s another warm and mostly sunny afternoon across the region, with temperatures generally in the mid-to-upper 80s. Dew points are in the 50s farther inland and the 60s closer to the coast, keeping things a little more humid near the water. Skies are clear as can be right now!
The Setup
A strong cold front will push through Friday afternoon and evening, with high pressure building in behind it from the Plains. Northerly winds will bring much cooler and drier air into the region for the weekend, but little to no rain is expected with the front. The cooldown will be brief as an upper-level ridge builds east from Texas and the western Gulf early next week, allowing temperatures to warm back up, but enjoy it while you can!
Tomorrow’s Forecast: Friday, October 16th
Friday starts in the 60s, but afternoon temperatures will depend on how far the front has made it through. Northwestern areas will already be behind the front, keeping temperatures in the 70s, while areas farther south and east still warm into the 80s to near 90. Rain chances stay low, but winds will pick up out of the north as cooler air moves in through the afternoon and evening.
Saturday’s Forecast: October 17th 🍂 🥶
As lot’s of you have been asking for recently, Saturday will finally feel a lot more like fall! We’ll start in the 50s, with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 60s to low 70s despite plenty of sunshine. Northerly winds around 10-15 mph will keep it feeling cool, especially early in the day. Winds do get gusty as the front pushes through later in the evening into the overnight.
The video below shows how quickly the drier air moves in Friday afternoon and night. Dew points will drop sharply behind the front, so by Saturday morning, it’ll feel much different outside than it did Friday afternoon. These low dew points stick around until at least next week… maybe not as low, but much lower than recently.
Winds will pick up behind the front Friday night, with gusts around 25-35 mph possible across much of the region. Those gusty winds and the much drier air will increase the fire risk into Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch is in place for southwestern Mississippi and parts of southeastern Louisiana, so hold off on outdoor burning.
Extended Local Outlook
Sunday morning will be one to break out the sweatshirt, with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s across the region. We’ll gradually warm back up next week, but the lower humidity should keep mornings comfortable. Rain chances stay low, with our next potential chance for rain holding off until later this month. Happy October everyone!
The ensemble probabilities show good agreement on below-normal afternoon temperatures this weekend, followed by a return closer to normal early next week. Beyond that, the models start to disagree more, though warmer afternoons become more likely toward next weekend. We’ll keep an eye on that as we get closer.
