Happy Thursday! Today is day 46 of hurricane season in the Atlantic. Currently, we have 2 areas of potential tropical cyclone development near the coast of Africa and northeastern Gulf/ offshore of the Southeastern United States.
Disturbance 1 is slowly moving west-northwest with a 10% chance of development by next week, while Disturbance 2 is slowly moving northeast with a 20% chance of development by next week.
Both of these distances are near the optimal sea surface temperature range of ≥ 28 °C.
Based on the wind shear outlook over the next week, the two distances will probably struggle to develop. There are only small pockets of low to moderate wind shear. The less, the better in terms of development.
