Good morning, folks! I hope everyone enjoyed their 3-day weekend and had a great Fourth of July.
As we start up our work week, the heat will continue, with above average temperatures expected for the entire Southeast, courtesy of an mid-level ridge building across much of the South.
At the time I’m writing this, the center of the mid-level ridge is located over in Northern Louisiana. With a 500mb height of 5940 m (almost 20,000 ft) above mean sea level, it’s slightly above average for this time of year. As higher heights generally means higher temperatures, we would expect temperatures at the surface to be slightly above average, as well.
Which is what we see when looking at the figure above, which shows the 5-day mean temperatures to be above average for most of the Southern and Central United States.
In fact, the National Weather Service has already issued Heat Advisories, and in some cases Excessive Heat Warnings due to the above-average temperatures expected this week.
So, just how hot is it going to get? Well, for Tuesday, we can except temperatures to exceed 100 F in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, and approaching in the upper-90s, approaching 100 F elsewhere across Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northern Mississippi.
Across the eastern portions of our area, it is much the same story, with high temperatures in the mid-90s likely for much of Alabama and Georgia, save for the higher elevations north of Atlanta. Across portions of southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana and closer to the Gulf of Mexico, temperature should remain somewhat cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s, due to an upper-level disturbance increasing chances for widespread showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Much the same is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, as the mid-level ridge remains in place, keeping the Southeast nice and toasty.
As far as chances for rain go, for the hottest places, there isn’t much. Most of the precipitation expected this week is associated with that weak upper-level disturbance I mentioned earlier, which means our highest chances for rain will be for southern Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. Although no washout is expected, these pop-up thunderstorms will help to bring some relief from the high temperatures.
3-Day Southeast City Forecast
| Dallas, TX | ||
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
| High: 102F | High: 102F | High: 102F |
| Low: 78F | Low: 80F | Low: 82F |
| Precip: None | Precip: None | Precip: None |
| Houston, TX | ||
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
| High: 96F | High: 94F | High: 95F |
| Low: 79F | Low: 79F | Low: 80F |
| Precip: None | Precip: 10% | Precip: 40% |
| New Orleans, LA | ||
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
| High: 87F | High: 89F | High: 90F |
| Low: 79F | Low: 80F | Low: 81F |
| Precip: 80% | Precip: 80% | Precip: 80% |
| Little Rock, AR | ||
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
| High: 99F | High: 98F | High: 98F |
| Low: 78F | Low: 79F | Low: 79F |
| Precip: None | Precip: None | Precip: 10% |
| Memphis, TN | ||
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
| High: 98F | High: 98F | High: 99F |
| Low: 80F | Low: 79F | Low: 80F |
| Precip: 10% | Precip: 10% | Precip: None |
| Birmingham, AL | ||
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
| High: 93F | High: 93F | High: 95F |
| Low: 77F | Low: 76F | Low: 77F |
| Precip: 30% | Precip: 40% | Precip: 30% |
| Atlanta, GA | ||
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
| High: 91F | High: 92F | High: 92F |
| Low: 72F | Low: 73F | Low: 73F |
| Precip: 30% | Precip: 30% | Precip: 30% |
