Firstly, thank you to those who checked in with well wishes yesterday. I’m on the mend today. It looks lik eI got hit with the flu bug. Yesterday was rough, but today is better.
Now, onto the weather. We have a Marginal Risk – a “1” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather – for severe tomorrow across parts of the area – mainly closer to the Gulf. And then, next week, we have an Enhanced Risk. That is a “3” on the same scale I mentioned above.
The risk for severe weather tomorrow hinges on how far north the secondary warm front can push. If it doesn’t push very far inland, it means most of the area will remain with ‘elevated’ storms rather than ‘surface-based’ storms. And, generally, storms need to be ‘surface-based’ in our neck of the woods to get severe weather.
So we will be watching that secondary push of warmer air closely. It also means any threat for severe weather will be rather conditional.
The HRRR model shows a brief window, between about 4p and 8p where conditions may be favorable. The sounding below is for 6p.
We check all the necessary boxes to get a few severe storms. But we don’t have numbers ‘off the charts’ for any kind of significant severe weather outbreak.
next week, on Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday, things look a bit more robust for parts of central Mississippi, northern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas. I won’t tough on that in this pose, but I will do my best to keep everyone updated as we move into next week.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Cloudy. A chance of showers, mainly this morning. Highs in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Saturday
Cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 70. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Sunday
Sunny. Less humid with highs around 70. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.MondaySunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.TuesdayPartly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday
Partly sunny. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Much cooler with lows in the lower 40s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Cooler with highs in the lower 60s.
