It looks like we will have a slight chance for a stray shower or storm the next few days, but severe weather isn’t in the cards, thankfully.
I went through and combed through some of the data and found that tomorrow probably offers the best bet for a stray storm. Friday and Saturday, the atmosphere may be capped a bit more. Satruday we may see another shot for a wayward shower, though.
There will be better chances for rain to the north, sure, but south of I-20 it looks like things should be drier through the weekend and into next week. Humid, yes. Stormy? Not really.
Then as we get closer to Monday, we will have a chance for storms, but even that chance is looking smaller thanks to the data coming back showing how all of the ingredients will be coming together.
I know many of you know from experience that anytime we are in the 80s in February it usually means storms are on the horizon. This time, though, as a cold front passes, there is some indication that we may be a bit too warm in the mid-levels to let big beefy storms develop.
Looking at the reverse trajectory modeling for Monday, we get plenty of lower-level moisture from the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf (red and blue lines) but the mid-level air (green) is imported from just off the coast of Japan! What a trip! And more importantly, that air will be warming up (sinking) as it approaches the area.
And if there are two things that will really put the lid on storms it is warmer air in the mid-levels and a sinking air.
So here’s to hoping this data in the model guidance holds. Because it would mean a cold front would move through the area and help to knock back temperatures a bit, but it would do so without firing off showers and storms!
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Thursday
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.FridayMostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a stray shower possible. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance for rain around 10 percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a stray shower possible. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance for rain around 10 percent.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Monday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Wednesday
Partly sunny. Highs around 80.
