Happy Saturday and good morning everyone! The weather story continues to remain consistent over the next few days, with on and off rain chances associated with the constant inflow of gulf moisture and day-time heating firing off convective showers and thunderstorms.
For that reason, our forecast area along the coast is expected to receive showers and thunderstorms today, and continue our rainy pattern that we have been in.
With upper-level winds being relatively slow, storms will have a bit of a slower progression through the area today, coupled with the recent days of rainfall the WPC does have the area under a marginal (5%) risk of excessive rainfall. This leaves the concern mainly with poor drainage areas that could see some roadway ponding under heavier storms.
The storms are not expected to be severe given the lack of sufficient dynamics. However, it is still important for anyone outdoors and along the beaches to seek shelter if there is an incoming storm to avoid any lightning related injuries.
Otherwise, the day will bring a mix of sun and clouds, with high temperatures in the upper 80s along the coastline, with the usual breeze off of the Gulf.
Throughout Sunday and the Fourth of July, it looks as though both the Euro and American models are suggesting the beginning of a ridge building back into the region. This ridge is not expected to be quite the same as the one that caused our long-term heat and dryness, however it could lead to slightly less precipitation chances.
For any celebrations on the Fourth, this could provide better chances at staying dry during any fireworks, however the chances of showers and thunderstorms are not totally off the table. With most convection being day-time based however, shower activity should cut-off past sunset.
With the ridge causing slightly less precipitation and cloud cover, this increase in sun will allow temperatures to slightly elevate, however nothing too major like the previous heat event as of now.
Moisture will stick with us as precipitable water values remain consistently over 2 inches across much of the area. With precipitable water being a measure of the amount of water vapor present in a column of air, values over 2 inches can lead to storms that fire off dropping a decent amount of rain.
As we move throughout the next work week, the main topic of concern will be how significant the ridge builds across the country, and how this will affect our rain chances moving forward towards the end of next week. Both the Euro and American models are showing this significant pattern shift moving forward, and this unfortunately could mean more heat for our area!
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Chance of morning showers and thunderstorms, with greater chances in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s with partly cloudy conditions. Chance of precipitation 70-percent with wind south at 5mph.
Tonight
Lingering showers and storms ending throughout the night. Lows in the mid 70s remaining mostly cloudy. Wind south at 5mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of afternoon showers and storms. Highs near 90. Wind southeast at 5 to 10mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 50-percent chance of afternoon showers and storms. Highs near 90. Wind south at 5 to 10mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s. Wind light and variable.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 90. Wind south at 5 to 10mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and storms. Lows in the upper 70s. Wind calm.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers. Highs in the low 90s. Wind south at 5 to 10mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s. Wind south at 5mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the upper 70s. Wind light and variable.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s. Wind south at 5 to 10mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the upper 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
