Some Relief Today Before a Return to the Heat: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast 8/16/2023

Some relief today as yesterday’s front has made its way to the coast ushering in drier and slightly cooler air and affording a break from the oppressive heat. A subtle pattern shift will relocate the ridge that has been keeping the area hot over the Central US leading to cooler, but potentially wetter conditions.

NWS Regional Outlook //Courtesy of NWS Jackson
NAM Temperature Forecast for 03z/16 //Courtesy of Pivotal Weather


Short-Term Outlook

Yesterday’s cold front has made it to the coastline and will provide some drier and slightly cooler air to the region. This front should remain along the coast today and give us some amazing weather. Near the coast, we can expect temperatures in the low 90s and further inland temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s. This is due to the dry air behind the front keeping temperatures down despite the influence of the ridge. We should get to enjoy this wonderful break from the oppressive version of summer we have come to know for the next few days as dry cool air works its way in from the northwest and some possible reinforcement of this airmass as we look into the early part of our weekend.

NAM Temperature Forecast // Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

One side effect of the dry air working its way into the region is the increased fire threat. Given the already hot conditions, the dry air will work to dry out fuels and could provide a focus for brush fires into the weekend. Extra caution should be taken to ensure fires don’t accidentally start and any that do start are reported right away.

NWS Jackson Fire Risk // Courtesy of NWS Jackson


Extended Outlook

As we look into early next week, uncertainty exists for exactly what type of weather we may have. What we know is we should see a return to Easterly flow as our ridge slides to the North over the Central US. This will allow moisture to return and rebuild our heat indices, especially along the coast, into the 105 to 110 range. What remains uncertain is the degree of moisture and our rainfall chances.

Some models are showing the potential for a tropical low to develop in the gulf early next week and while its too far for impacts, the overall path of this low will dictate the direction and amount of moisture for the region. As this event approaches we should get some more certainty and be able to provide a more direct forecast of moisture and thus rainfall. For now, stay tuned to our page as we navigate this summer!

GFS Dew Point Forecast // Courtesy of Pivotal Weather


REGIONAL DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny skies. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

Wednesday night: Clear skies. Low temperatures in the mid 60s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies. High temperatures in the mid 90s.

Thursday night: Mostly clear skies. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies and hot. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat Indices may reach up to 105°F.

Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies and hot. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices may reach up to 105°F.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies and hot. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices may reach up to 110°F. Chance of rain 20%.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies and hot. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices may reach up to 110°F. Chance of rain 10%

Monday night: Mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures in the upper 70s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies and hot. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices may reach up to 110°F. Chance of rain 20%

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy cloudy skies. Low temperatures in the upper 70s.



Author of the article:


Bruce Pollock

Bruce is a recent graduate of the University of Oklahoma with a degree in Meteorology. Bruce is continuing his education at the University of Albany this fall in the Emergency Management & Homeland Security departments to learn more about communicating risks in the weather enterprise.