Well one ocean basin certainly has some tropical activity. Thankfully it’s not ours.
Yes, you’re seeing that right. There is not one but TWO tropical storms off the west coast of central America. These may cause some flooding issues but should gradually weaken while staying far away from our area.
For our area, it still looks fairly quiet. Most models have backed off of showing any systems moving into the Gulf (with the exception of a few of GFS ensembles).
The jet stream is expected to sink further south than it has been for the past few weeks. While this may bring some chances of rain and storms to the region, it will keep tropical systems from being able to move towards the area. This is not uncommon for this time of year.
Wind shear is only part of the picture. The main source of energy for a hurricane is warm ocean waters (high theta-e values for our weather nerds). Although some parts of the gulf are slowly warming as we transition into summer, the waters right on the coast are very cool due to all of the precipitation in the area.
Overall, it looks like an unfavorable pattern for any systems in the region. There may be an increase in rain and storms for the region next week but it will not be because of a tropical storm.
