1/27/23 230p Update: Sunday may feature low-end severe weather potential

Some of the high-resolution model data coming back today is starting to give an indication that there may be a brief window for severe weather on Sunday. There may also be a window for some flooding, too.

This morning, model guidance supported a Marginal Risk for severe weather from the STorm Prediction center to the west and southwest.

The afternoon guidance is now a bit different than the model guidance was showing previously.

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As of right now, the timeline for the potential for severe weather will be on Sunday between 11a and 5p. And the potential for localized flash flooding will be between 1a Sunday and 3a Monday.

The main threat with the severe weather will be brief heavy rain, localized flash flooding, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail and the potential for a few brief and weak tornadoes.

The southern flank of all of that rain would be where the highest risk for severe weather would persist. On top of that, any discrete, isolated storm that develops south of the line would also pose a risk to turn severe.

The Updraft Helicity Streaks show some shading over the area on Sunday. Most of those streaks shown on the map below are under elevated storms, and not surface-based storms, limiting their potential for wind gusts exceeding 60mph and reducing the potential for a tornado to very, very low.

So the threat is low, but not zero. Looking at the Skew-T data, the atmosphere south of that line of storms has a very typical Gulf Coast wintertime severe weather look to it. Not a “big” severe weather look, but a look of the typical storms we get in winter with gusty wind and the potential for a brief tornado.

So as you make weekend plans, please plan to check back in on the forecast if you have plans to do anything away from home on Sunday. And don’t be surprised if the Marginal Risk for severe weather is expanded to the east and includes parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

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